money and payment, Overview

-At the same time, the market has generally increased its bet on the Fed's interest rate cut in December. The market expects the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December to increase to 99.9%, which is higher than the previous expectation of 86.1%, which makes the European and American markets join hands overnight.

-The market expects that the new bitmap will show that the total number of interest rate cuts will be reduced from the previous four to two in 2025, and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of 2025. Affected by this, the US dollar index continues to rise, which makes the interest rate cut achieve the effect of raising interest rates, which is expected to be "ceiling" management.-Last night, the consumer price index (CPI) released by the United States in November rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the market expectation was 0.3%, up by 2.7% year-on-year, and the market expectation was 2.7%, both up by 0.1 percentage point from October. This data opened the door for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

-The market expects that the new bitmap will show that the total number of interest rate cuts will be reduced from the previous four to two in 2025, and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of 2025. Affected by this, the US dollar index continues to rise, which makes the interest rate cut achieve the effect of raising interest rates, which is expected to be "ceiling" management.-The market expects that the new bitmap will show that the total number of interest rate cuts will be reduced from the previous four to two in 2025, and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of 2025. Affected by this, the US dollar index continues to rise, which makes the interest rate cut achieve the effect of raising interest rates, which is expected to be "ceiling" management.However, the process of reducing the inflation rate to 2% has stalled, and there has even been a rebound. The market is worried that the Fed will stage a "hawkish interest rate cut" next Wednesday, and the Fed may cut the guidance on interest rate cuts in the bitmap.